Remainers WERE fear-mongering: Shock new Brexit stats show staggering level of FALSE fear
The Treasury’s pre-referendum analysis made assumptions about three potential alternatives to EU membership based on existing arrangements which other countries have. They were Britain being in the European Economic Area, dealing on World Trade Organisation rules, or securing a negotiated agreement.
Ahead of the Change Britain report, senior figures and economists gave their own verdict on the Government’s pre-referendum warnings.
Nick, now Lord, Macpherson, who was top civil servant at the Treasury until shortly before it published its report on the likely cost of three different versions of Brexit, claimed the analysis “still looks rigorous and remarkably prescient”.
But how politicians presented it, including then Chancellor George Osborne’s threat of a cost-cutting “punishment” Budget in the event of a Leave vote, was a gamble that “in defeat becomes a symbol of a losing campaign”.
Andrew Lilico, the pro-Brexit director of Europe Economics, said consumer spending since the referendum suggested people disbelieved the Government’s forecasts of a permanent long-term hit to incomes – and that while they “might be wrong, their reaction is still worth noting”.
He also said the Treasury report had ignored the potential gains Britain could make from the new trade deals it could strike with non-EU countries once out of the bloc.